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It’s official. We’re two days into the backrooms of 2023… that liminal week between Christmas and New Year’s when everyone’s not too sure what day it is (or what time it is, for that matter). Routines are blurred, and time seems to slow to a sludge. Wherever you are, we hope you’re enjoying it, FutureParty people.
In other news… the economy is evening out, the rise of TikTok business jargon, and New Jersey’s pulling off basic income programs.
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ECONOMY
Vibecession
We can all relax about the economy next year
The Future. Despite the negativity surrounding the 2023 economy, things have turned out better than expected. The “looming recession” never arrived, pandemic-disrupted supply chains straightened out, inflation cooled, labor shortages waned, and consumers kept opening their wallets. While the US economy hasn’t returned to normalcy just yet, it appears to be healing from the chaos set in motion by the pandemic, inflation, and war. If the last four years have proved anything, it may be that there’s never a 100% chance of anything.
Clearer skies ahead
Many economists feel cautiously optimistic about the 2024 economy, reports Vox.
Recession odds are lower, as Goldman Sachs thinks that the economy is on its “final descent” to a soft landing, where inflation returns to the Fed’s 2% target.
Three interest rate cuts might be on the horizon, if the Fed continues to like what it sees.
Inflation is supposed to cool even more, with prices in some areas expected to decline — even though most won’t go back to what they were in 2019.
Wages are anticipated to increase at a rate faster than inflation, if the jobs market stays strong, so people’s buying power should improve.
Mortgage rates have dropped below 7%, sparking some hopefulness around the housing market.
Not across the finish line
By the middle of 2024, Americans should know whether the economy has gotten a soft landing or not. “Definitely by this time next year, we’re either landed, or we’re in a recession,” Claudia Sahm, a former economist at the Fed, told Vox.
Bringing inflation back down to 2% while maintaining a strong labor market (and avoiding greater macroeconomic issues) isn’t outside the realm of possibility, but it would be unprecedented, Andrew Patterson, senior international economist at Vanguard, also told the publication. No matter what, he foresees some job loss, which will “come with some pain.”
Fingers crossed for a soft landing.
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CULTURE
Cast your spell
The internet changed the way we talked about business this year
The Future. 2023 saw the expansion of our collective business jargon, with funny words and phrases for various forms of disengagement breaking out on social media. If workers want help setting boundaries or being more productive in less time, then they may not need to look further than Instagram or TikTok for inspiration.
Language matters
Fast Company highlights the business terms that entered our lexicon this year.
Bare minimum Mondays: a solution to the Sunday Scaries, the idea behind this phrase is to ease into the workweek by checking a few things off your to-do list rather than feeling pressure to crush all your goals at once.
Lazy girl jobs: this term argues that “you don’t have to work 9 to 5 to earn a living” by working smarter, not harder, in WFH jobs that pay well and offer flexibility.
Loud quitting refers to employees actively seeking other jobs and being against the organizations they work for, while grumpy staying refers to people who are just going through the motions at jobs they can’t leave.
Quiet hiring: this phrase means giving workers additional responsibilities they didn’t sign up for... without a pay increase... or sometimes any discussion at all.
Going into monk mode is all about ignoring distractions (phone, Slack, and email alerts) until you complete the tasks at hand.
Highs and lows
So, now we want to hear from you…
YOUR DAILY POLL
We ask the hard-hitting questions.
What business term defined your 2023?
65.5% of you voted for Nice in yesterday’s poll: Naughty or nice?
“As much as I’d like to select ‘Naughty,’ as I age, I just get nicer.”
“In today’s world of divisiveness and social media where everyone can insult anyone on their opinion, a little niceness would be appreciated.”
“Who likes hangovers? Not me.”
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It’s Spotify Wrapped season — here’s the Q3 edition
It’s just one of many in Chartr’s newsletter.
The chart shows that for every $10.99 premium subscription in Q3, the company generated another $1.69 from its ad-supported users. They then shell out $9.34 on costs related to delivering content to listeners. And once they pay R&D, sales and marketing, and admin costs — they end up with a $0.12 operating profit. Pretty wild.
The amount that ends up in the pockets of artists rather than managers, record labels, or publishers, isn’t as clear. Eek.
CULTURE
Effective aid programs for Christmas // Illustration by Luke Perrotta with DALL-E
New Jersey is pulling off basic income programs
The Future. In 2022, Paterson, NJ, implemented a small basic income program that enabled low-income residents to afford necessities. For 2024, Paterson is trying again on a larger scale — creating a blueprint for other towns to follow nationwide (rather than hoping MrBeast will do it for them).
The basics
Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh outlined the details of the upcoming program.
The town will give around 200 residents $400/month on debit cards for 12 months.
Applicants must earn less than $38,910 annually in single-person households, $110,311 a year in three-person homes, or $184,405 in five-person households.
6,000 people have applied to this new round. A lottery will determine who receives aid.
Last year’s program was supported by Mayors for a Guaranteed Income, an economic security organization. The 2024 program will be funded with help from the University of Pennsylvania’s Guaranteed Income Center.
Tried and true
Paterson tried this once before, and it worked. In 2022, 110 residents were given the same amount of money and spent it on rent, utilities, and groceries — exactly what basic income programs are meant to enable.
Why have a season of giving when it can last all year?
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Highlights
The best curated daily stories from around the web
Media, Music, & Entertainment
National Amusements, the parent company of Paramount and CBS, revealed it was hacked last year, resulting in over 82,000 customers having their information stolen. Read More → techcrunch
2023 was a year for “Great Man” films, with Oppenheimer, Ferrari, Napoleon, and Maestro all fixated on the legacies of influential men — for better or for worse. Read More → vox
Netflix won this year’s streaming wars and may have emerged as the victor for good — so, what do they do now? Read More → variety
Fashion & E-Commerce
In partnership with Tiege Hanley
We all want good skin, especially as we enter a new year. But finding the right products can be overwhelming and confusing. That’s where Tiege Hanley comes in — the ultimate solution for men’s skincare needs. Their system contains all the essentials to keep your skin looking its best — a daily face wash, exfoliating scrub, AM moisturizer with SPF 20, and PM moisturizer. And an exclusive 30% off your first box and a free gift. Say goodbye to complicated skincare routines and hello to effortless, effective care with Tiege Hanley.
Louis Vuitton and Chanel handbags can now be authenticated — or exposed as fakes — by AI software. Read More → insider
European tourism and luxury hotspots like Milan and Paris are desperate to welcome Chinese tourists — but they shouldn’t get their hopes up. Read More → bof
Living without a mirror makes it harder to curate your appearance — and easier to let go of self-consciousness. Read More → vogue
Tech, Web3, & AI
A documentary tracks the decades-long development of the internet and how it went from dial-up to a tornado of misinformation. Read More → hackernoon
As AI image generators become ubiquitous, some think the art of photography is dead — or at least in need of a new definition. Read More → nyt
A lawsuit filed against a Bitcoin mine in Texas reveals a trend of Chinese investment in American crypto mining. Read More → insider
Creator Economy
People want to become creators now more than ever — too many, in fact. Read More → pymnts
“Infopreneurs” and the creator education sector are set to push India’s creator economy past $100 billion. Read More → republicworld
Substantial allegations of plagiarism against various YouTubers highlights the need to take action against a rising wave of content fraud. Read More → nbc
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Today’s email was written by Kait Cunniff and Luke Perrotta.
Edited by Melody Song.
Published by Darline Salazar.