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MIT Finds AI Can Replace Almost 12% Of US Workers
They’re coming // Illustration by Kate Walker
A study out of MIT, in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory, found that AI is already capable of taking over 11.7% of American jobs.
Why It Hurts: An 11.7% labor-market disruption is far higher than most estimates, so MIT’s finding could be raising some alarm bells. The researchers arrived at this number by developing a tool called the “Iceberg Index” — a digital double of the American workforce “where 151M+ human workers coordinate with thousands of AI agents,” per the tool’s site.
Behind The Code: Why were estimates of AI’s impact so underestimated?
Most studies have focused on the “Surface Index,” or the rapid adoption in tech and computing. That only disrupts about 2.2% of the workforce and $211 billion in wage value.
The Iceberg Index accounts for all the areas AI is capable of taking over, including administrative, financial, and professional services. That increases the disruption by 9.5% and $1.2 trillion in wages.
That also widens the geographical scope of AI disruption — from mostly coastal enclaves to significant impact in Rust Belt states like Ohio, Tennessee, and Michigan… widely affecting those who work in support and logistics in the manufacturing industry.
Pink Slip: The Iceberg Index — which charts over 32,000 skills and 923 jobs across 3,000 counties — is so precise that it can pinpoint how AI will disrupt specific zip codes based on their employment makeup. That’s by design, because the researchers want state and local governments to use the tool to determine exactly which regulations or laws are needed to protect the human workforce. There’s even a feature on the site that lets you adjust different theoretical policies to see how they would affect disruption numbers and local GDP.
Per Fast Company, Utah, Tennessee, and North Carolina are already leveraging the index… which we can safely assume means people are properly freaked out.
Prediction: With the White House trying to stifle states’ ability to regulate AI, the Iceberg Index may become a flashpoint in the growing battle between state and federal power.
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Today’s email was written by David Vendrell.
Edited by Nick Comney. Polled and Copy-edited by Kait Cunniff.
Published by Darline Salazar.