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The Rise of Entertainment Betting
Survivor bets // Image by Kait Cunniff with DALL-E
Prediction markets are booming, with platforms now leaning heavily into culture and entertainment, per Bloomberg.
The Big Bets: This year, platforms like Kalshi have seen a major increase in entertainment trading. Instead of just betting on sports or crypto, people are betting on reality show winners, video game release dates, and even Rotten Tomatoes scores.
Why It Hits: Entertainment is becoming big business for prediction markets, with reality TV emerging as an especially popular category.
According to Kalshi, its entertainment trading volume reached $814 million by September 25, up from about $300 million in all of 2025 and just $43 million in 2024.
Reality TV is a major draw, with people betting on contestant eliminations, challenges, and ultimate winners. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are capitalizing on the popularity of shows like Love Island. This past summer, total trading volume across all Love Island US and UK markets on Kalshi reached about $80 million.
While prediction-market users are predominantly young, educated men, more women are getting in on the action as entertainment betting grows. Women account for just a quarter of Kalshi users, but their numbers have jumped 60%.
Final Bets: Of course, betting on entertainment comes with its own risks — especially when someone already knows how the story ends. In February 2026, Kalshi fined and suspended a MrBeast video editor after finding that he used insider knowledge to bet on the YouTuber’s videos. Reality TV presents a similar challenge, as leaked eliminations or behind-the-scenes information could give certain bettors an unfair advantage.
Prediction: As entertainment betting takes off, reality TV may need to adapt. That could mean more live broadcasts, tighter production security, and greater efforts to keep spoilers from becoming someone else’s payday.
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Today’s email was written by Deena ElGenaidi.
Edited by Nick Comney. Polled and Copy-edited by Kait Cunniff.
Published by Darline Salazar.