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Verifact Markets Trades On Disputed Facts
Encyclopedia Predictica // Illustration by Kate Walker
A prediction-market startup called Verifact Markets is letting people make trades on events that have already happened.
Why It Plays: The entire premise of a prediction market is about making a best guess on what could happen, so Verifact is putting a twist on the idea — trying to reach a “consensus” on things that people can’t seem to agree happened or not. It plays right into the growing acceptance of conspiracy theories.
Between The Lines: Verifact Markets wants to crowdsource the truth, according to Wired.
The platform lets people trade on things like how Jeffrey Epstein died, whether COVID-19 was a lab leak, or whether State Farm “intentionally delayed” claims tied to the devastating LA wildfires last year.
Each market is a simple true-or-false choice, and users can add “evidence” to back up their position.
Verifact Markets will determine if there’s enough consensus and evidence to “expire” a market and make a payout “based on its calculation of the odds at the time.”
The company plans to launch a “research system” to help determine the “truth” behind events.
Closing Thoughts: Verifact Markets was developed by Positron Capital Management, the family office of tech investor Peter Wokwicz. For now, the company isn’t licensed to operate in the US, but Wokwicz has already purchased a regulated financial exchange to eventually introduce the platform stateside.
Soon, everyone can make some money from arguing with their uncle on Facebook.
Prediction: Prepare for Verifact Markets to become a talking point in future election cycles.
Today’s email was written by David Vendrell.
Edited by Nick Comney. Polled and Copy-edited by Kait Cunniff.
Published by Darline Salazar.