Transcript 0:00 Cash now, more later from Opendoor gives you cash upfront for your home, plus all the profit later. That's no chaos now, no cash left behind later. Skip the showings now, pocket extra profit later. This is so simple now. 0:15 This is so awesome later. Or sell fast now and pop the champagne later. Cash now, more later. Now available nationwide. Start your offer at opendoor.com/acast. Profits calculated after fees and costs. 0:28 Eligibility and offer price may vary. Wheelhouse DNA. Hi, everyone. My name is Boje Kolade. And I'm Chris Sawtelle. 0:42 And welcome to the Future Forecast, a podcast where we explore the intersection between business, technology, and entertainment. 0:48 If you don't know me, I'm the co-founder and president of The Future Party, which is a community-based media company for creative professionals. 0:54 We have a daily newsletter where we talk about culture and technology, and we also host a ton of different events across the country. 1:01 And I'm the co-founder and CEO of Cross Check Studios, a Gen Z media company built by Gen Z for Gen Z. 1:06 At The Future Party, we are so proud of the business and the community we've built, so we had the idea to create this show to dissect and explain some of our most interesting stories. Today, we're looking ahead. 1:17 We're gonna talk about how Sundance relates to the changes in the independent film market, how working from home affects or doesn't affect productivity, and MrBeast's new Amazon deal. But first, let's catch up. 1:29 I'm still in Park City, although it feels like you are 'cause you're wearing this crazy hat. I just got off the plane, Boje. I, I, uh, t- I, I just got off the plane from Sundance. Man, I loved it- [laughs]... so much. 1:42 There's so much ripe news to give all of our listeners. I don't know if you know this, but there, there were a lot of sales. There were a lot of sales. There were a lot of sales. 1:51 But, but none, but, but, but none maybe near $30 million. Uh, uh, yes, but- [laughs]... I did some research. [laughs] And historically, 2:08 Sundance has never had a $30 million deal. Uh, in fact, I think the most was for CODA, around 25 million. That doesn't take away from my hot take, though. I, I'm not, I'm not taking away from your hot take. 2:22 I'm just saying maybe it's- No, no. Not at all. [laughs] A warm take. Well, it was a take. [laughs] Uh, whatever you have to tell yourself for taking the over, fair enough. [laughs] Yeah, yeah, yeah. 2:33 A win, a win is a win. [laughs] It's all good. No, I thought, I thought Sundance was, was, uh, good. I'm, I'm gonna actually gonna put on my, my hat. 2:42 Since you're wearing your cozy hat, I'm gonna wear my, my Sundance hat. Oh, you're gonna look so much better than me, though. Getting in the groove here. It looks good. 2:49 [laughs] Chris, real quick, highs and lows of Sundance. Go. Highs and lows, I thought that people were out. People were ready to mingle. There was a lot of fun. That said, the parties 3:02 were a little bit lackluster from the perspective of over, over-hype and over-submissions, meaning several parties oversubscribed by, like, 900 people. 3:16 It just felt like, you're gonna make all these people wait outside and not let them in, and not tell them that they're gonna be turned away at the door? 3:23 It just felt very much like, oh, we don't know how many people are going to come, so let's just have everyone be invited, and first come, first served. It just, it just felt kinda like, really? Really? 3:34 Let- let's, let's, let's curate it a little bit more if you're really gonna play the elitist game. I hope that wasn't a dig at our party. 3:41 Your party was the best party of the n- uh, literally the best party of the entire weekend. It was my first time coming since COVID, and I thought it was good to kinda be back in the action. 3:53 And so I think a high for me was just sort of, like, reconnecting, connecting with just the film industry, and, and that energy and that vibe. 4:02 Low, I, I feel like, I don't know, I think Sundance should, should rethink their, um, ticketing system a little bit. First topic of discussion, but before that, I, I think, um, 4:17 I have to go grab something for you, actually. This is weird. Yeah. Anyways, I wanted to wish you a happy birthday. Uh, yesterday, uh, two days ago, Monday, was your birthday. Um, you're getting old. 4:33 The grays are coming in. Oh. [laughs] So we got you some- Oh, man... some mini cakes. A mini, because I know you're watching your figure, so you can, like, you know, not get too big while you're eating your food. 4:45 [laughs] But there's 24 of them. [laughs] This is very kind. Thank you. [laughs] I will have half of them. I really appreciate it. Cheers to us. Of course. To your birthday and to mine. [laughs] Mm. 5:00 The sweet victory of a hot take- [laughs]... with, with what is considered a, a hot cake. Yeah. That's, that's your hot take reward. There you go. 5:08 [laughs] So we just talked about our highs and lows at Sundance, but, uh, really, i- the whole independent movie film industry might potentially be at risk at Sundance. So 5:25 what's been happening is the independent film business has been struggling a little bit at the film festival. In fact, some say that, you know, traditionally Sundance created the indie film business. 5:37 But the previous model has not been working in the best way. So, uh, why is that? There's some potential reasons. Lucas Shaw, who's at Bloomberg, he is talking about the changing economics. 5:49 So independent films that have grossed more than 20 million at the box office have actually declined 30% since 2019. People are going to the theater much less. 5:59 Audiences would rather stream on, an independent movie than, than go into the theater and save their money. 6:04 The role of, of streaming and streamers have, you know, traditionally been the top buyers out of Sundance for the past decades, and sometimes they've actually inflated the sale prices so that traditional distributors can't- Compete. 6:17 But now the streamers are not purchasing as much as they once were, which is really essentially leaving this weird hole of people buying films at Sundance. 6:29 And so what's uniquely interesting, 'cause we were talking about your hot take, you had said you felt there wasn't gonna be, um, a, a sale more than 30 million. 6:38 Again, there's never been a sale of 30 million, but apparently it's slowing down, and people are panicking. Uh, they, they're not sure what to do. 6:48 Maybe it's the strikes, maybe it's not, but there seems to be sort of an interesting moment within the indie film market. I would be remiss to say that I think it's not the buyer's fault or the streamer's fault. 7:00 I think it's us, the consumer's fault. If we're not going, and if there's not enough demand, unfortunately the business has to look at the economics of what is worth va- worthwhile. 7:15 They can't purchase the same way as they used to. The catalog is not as important or is not as necessary. It's kind of like what happened with radio, that dichotomy between radio, theater, film, and television. 7:31 All of those things have competed with one another because what they're competing with is time and attention. 7:38 And now with the introduction of the telephone, or with, with the, with the iPhone or Android or whatever phone you use, people have the luxury of being able to consume content at home, and no need to leave. 7:52 And if your time and attention is spent there, then you're not spending it on Netflix or on Apple TV or on Amazon. It's interesting you say that, uh, it's the fault of the consumer. 8:05 One note out there is that major movie studios released more movies in theaters five years ago than today. And meanwhile, streaming has tripled during that time. 8:18 And, you know, at the end of the day, the struggle is that a lot of these producers are frustrated because it's difficult to find the money to finance the films because investors are worried that they're going to have trouble finding distribution because, to your point, people aren't going to theaters. 8:36 And so I, I do resonate a little bit with what you're saying, but can you blame the consumer? You know, may- maybe it's not the consumer's fault. Maybe it's, it's technologies. You know, we've created, um, 8:53 a theater experience within our living room, and why, why would I want to go to the theater to experience a film when I can have maybe a better time and better quality at home? 9:10 Isn't it a debate between supply and demand? If the demand is not there, why should a... I'm not trying to be in favor of the studios here, but why should a buyer take the risk? 9:23 You know, one of the topics, one of the conversations is, that, that we're having around Sundance is that Sundance the festival needs to take on more of a role in helping support film sales. 9:36 Sundance wasn't built for that. It was built to help celebrate new voices and bring attention to them. 9:43 But I truly believe that as much as this is a business, it's upon, it, it's, it's on you the creator, you the entrepreneur, to do the sale. I agree, actually, that it's... I agree and disagree. 9:58 It's, it's in one sense not Sundance's problem. You know, they're a marketplace. They're actually creating the opportunity for the entrepreneur to shine, and the entrepreneur- Yes... 10:10 in this case are the producers, the writers, the cast, everyone who took the risk to create something that didn't have distribution. 10:19 Uh, at the same time, Sundance right now has created such economy for the city of Park City, for the film industry, for these creators, that there is a level of responsibility that has been given to them, and power, right? 10:41 Not to quote Spider-Man, but, you know, with great power comes great responsibility, and I think right now Sundance actually, the onus is on them to be responsible and be a good steward of the film industry, and the film industry is not just 10:57 art for the sake of art. It's a business, right? 11:01 So here's one thing that I will say at the end of the day, whether it, the onus is on Sundance or the customer or, you know, blah, blah, blah, but I recently just saw a video clip of Rick Rubin, and he was talking about how he doesn't create content for the audience. 11:24 He creates content for himself. And by creating content for himself, the audience, you know, latches on to that content. 11:38 And I, I'm paraphrasing, but I, I really truly resonated with what he was saying. 11:44 And at the end of the day, we do have to give Sundance their flowers because they provide the opportunity for creators to create content for themselves. And that, to me, is the most important thing. 11:58 It's real stories, unique voices, and if buyers wanna buy it because they wanna take the risk in s- in, in the rest of the world also liking that content and those stories, then so be it. [electronic noise] So, uh, 12:16 next topic, we're gonna talk about remote work So, uh, a, a new study came out from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, and what they've concluded is that remote work has not boosted or declined productivity growth for industries using remote models versus those in person. 12:34 I think this is really interesting. 12:38 There's, as you've seen [laughs], a huge camp since COVID of people who are pro in-office, uh, come to work, and those who are very much pro-remote, and there've been countless studies on either end. 12:52 And so we're gonna use this conversation to definitively say what is the best. Um, actually, I'm just kidding. But, uh, we should just talk- [laughs]... about our thoughts. 13:02 [laughs] If we're saying it doesn't matter, then what's, what's the point? I had originally thought, and have thought, that work from home is... 13:14 has really changed so much of my perspective on how we as people work and collaborate and put time and attention to a bigger idea when working at a company. In reflecting on it, 13:29 I've realized that part of my perspective is skewed, obviously by way of me being the owner of the company, looking at where the value proposition is from a financial perspective, for the P&L of the business. 13:44 There is something to be said about, we go back to responsibility, like, with the, the construct, whether it's Sundance or, or the ecosystem you as an owner might build. I know, Oye, you yourself are a founder. 13:58 And it made me realize that you, you should at least have a space, a safe space for your people to go to, or at least have the resource for them to go to should they elect to. 14:12 I have some friends that have children, and it was interesting. 14:15 I had a conversation with them recently where they were like, "I'm so grateful that I have an office to go to so that I don't have to balance the work from home struggle that is having my personal life... 14:29 I, I have the ability to leave my personal life behind and go to my workspace." Again, do I think that's my responsibility to take on? No. 14:39 But I, it, it made me realize that if you have the ability to give a, a space for work, it does truly benefit probably productivity. I almost think that space should be given. 14:51 I don't necessarily know if I agree that it should be for work. I think that there is this idea of building community- Yeah... and camaraderie with your employees- Yeah... and colleagues. And 15:07 what I've seen s- really smart companies do is create moments throughout the year where that can happen, whether that's happy hours or team retreats or events together, those are moments to build community. 15:23 Uh, the reason why I say a space for work is there are so many opportunities now to co-work and go to a coffee shop, but maybe they, if they, if they can't do that, give the option for those who will spend a good chunk of their time out of their home, m- potentially give them that membership at that co-working space. 15:43 Well, I have a question. We talk about building community, which I completely agree in the workplace is so important. How do we create healthy culture or a culture that allows collaboration 15:57 with a healthy creative ecosystem for your employees to organically create together? How do you create that community? 16:05 How do you create that culture without mandating or making your employees feel that they are forced to show up? Yes, it's a job. You need to go do that. 16:15 But there's sometimes a bit of backlash or that feeling of, "Oh, I have to go into the office on this day, this day, and this day." I don't have the answer. I'm just throwing that up as a how- Yeah... 16:26 how would you do that? I think it really just comes down to the types of individuals that you hire. Uh, so here's what's interesting. This study is basically saying it doesn't matter. Yeah. So now it's opinion. 16:41 And so people have opinions on either side, and I feel that if you want to create a work culture that breeds community that doesn't feel forced, I think it just comes down to who you hire, 16:57 and hiring individuals whose opinions align with, with maybe feeling one way or the other about remote work and in-office work and feeling one way or the other about your culture, right? 17:13 The culture is made up of the people. 17:15 And so I think it just comes down to who you hiring, and that's why there are some really successful remote companies, and there's other really successful companies that aren't remote. 17:25 You know, one company that I always look to is Automattic, and they own WordPress and Tumblr and a bunch of other digital web-based companies. They're worth about $7.5 billion. 17:37 They are predominantly a remote organization with hundreds to, I think, thousands of employees. And I think it works because of the people that they hire. 17:49 If they hired someone that needed to be in the office, there would be a conflict and, and it wouldn't work. And so I think what this study [laughs] is basically saying is, "It doesn't matter. 18:01 Choose your poison, and it'll work out in the end." Well, this really goes back to your hot take from former episode. 18:09 This very much highlights that notion that we now turn into a freelance society where everyone is just a freelancer for hire. Yeah Or work for hire. Yeah. You know, you're, you're a hired gun. 18:24 You can hop into the Zoom whenever and do your work. You pipe into Slack, and you don't have to ever show up in the office, you know? And so I, I think it's fascinating and, and, and something to think about. 18:35 [upbeat electronic music] Shipping, billing, admin, payroll, marketing. You're managing all the things, so why waste time sending important documents the old-fashioned way? 18:48 Mail and ship when you want, how you want with stamps.com. Print postage on demand, and schedule pickups from your office or home. Save up to 90% with automated rate shopping. 18:58 Over one million small businesses trust stamps.com. Get $20 in free postage when you sign up for the pro plan at stamps.com/blackfriday2026. Terms and conditions apply. [electronic music] We've got one more topic. 19:14 What is it? What is that topic, buddy? What is the topic? Do you know a guy named MrBeast, Chris? Oh. [laughs] Do I? So- Oh, do I ever... do I ever. 19:26 So YouTuber MrBeast, uh, arguably the biggest YouTuber, and Amazon have reportedly struck a $100 million deal for a Prime Video competition series that would follow a similar format to his YouTube videos. This is, uh, 19:44 maybe a watershed moment because MrBeast has traditionally been seen as a, quote, unquote, "creator," influencer, creating his own videos off in a corner, and now we have Amazon Prime Video, one of the biggest streamers, co-opting his content and financing it, and there's a lot of implications. 20:07 Currently, MrBeast has 233 million YouTube subscribers, so, uh, he's huge. Who needs who in this situation? Why, why is Amazon down for this? Why is MrBeast down for this? I have so many questions, Chris. 20:22 I'm sure you have some thoughts. Uh, I have so many thoughts on this. One, Jimmy, if you're listening, we definitely want your success. Go for it. 20:33 It kills me to say this, but I, I, I pray that he succeeds, and I'm, I'm hopeful that he cracks the code with Amazon for all of us in the creator economy. If he doesn't, it has huge implications because sadly 20:47 if, if this were to not work out, traditional Hollywood is gonna hem and haw and claim that if you can't do it with the person that is arguably the biggest in the world, 21:01 then all creators are not meant for, quote, unquote, "traditional Hollywood" or traditional media. I completely disagree with that. It'll be so sad if it were to not work out. 21:12 It really would make life very difficult for the rest of us, and I actually think that that's- Yeah... something that we need to look at and magnify 'cause it's not fair. 21:21 It's not fair because when The Rock or Kevin Hart are in a movie, and Central Intelligence, for example, doesn't do well, no one parades around and talks about how The Rock doesn't have buying power or that Kevin Hart or, or any other fantastic, quote, unquote, "A-lister" doesn't have buying power. 21:39 Who's blamed is the studio. Who's blamed is the film business. It's not about the talent that's attached to it always. They're gonna be great. They're gonna move off to go do the other big, huge blockbuster. 21:50 And time and again, for some reason, the narrative is always that the creator economy or the creator attached to these things is to blame or at fault, and I think always it's traditional executives doing traditional things, 22:04 not letting the talent do what they do best. Again, I'm sure it'll be work- it'll work. He is the Mark Burnett of, of content. For those that don't know Mark Burnett, I mean- [laughs] I love-... 22:17 he's made some of the best unscripted television in the world... I love that. I love that. He is. I mean, Jimmy is the Mark Burnett of this generation, right? I mean, think about what, what he's created. 22:29 Everything is always big, huge spectacle, great views. He get- he obviously gets the most views known to man. I think that he's capped out. And when, when, when you've gotten to a point where you can't go any further, 22:44 you now kind of get to a place where you have to move on from... You have to, you have to grow elsewhere. YouTube has now... is going through layoffs. 22:54 I don't know if you're aware of that, but they let go of a significant amount of their S- what are c- called SPMs, which is, like, partner managers for talent, which I think is a huge signifier to where YouTube is looking at how they partner with creators or base talent on that platform. 23:15 And this is Jimmy, not, I don't wanna say selling out. Guy makes plenty of money, but this is his way of capitalizing on the moment, which is I am the biggest and the best, and let me use Bezos and Amazon. 23:29 Not just Prime. I'm sure that this deal is so multi-pronged or multifaceted, it has to include market- uh, he is literally a brand ambassador for Amazon at this point. 23:40 If you can use all of his followers on YouTube to promote Amazon as a full service. 23:46 It's so interesting 'cause, uh, apparently the rumor is that this was potentially a bidding war, and the idea that Amazon, again, if this is all real, won out is massive. 23:59 And I think about how yes, he's the Mark Burnett of, you know, his generation, but he's also taking huge risks when it comes to expanding beyond content, right? 24:11 With, with MrBeast Burgers, with Feastables, and now I'm like, "Wow, does, does Amazon now become his e-commerce platform for- Yeah... that line of the business beyond the show?" 24:24 And, uh, I, I just find that really fascinating. Another thing that you said that I think is really interesting is this idea of, of him potentially failing. 24:34 I actually feel it would be very hard for something like this to, uh, not work out, and the reason I say that is because Jimmy is already doing this. He's already creating content. 24:47 I've always thought that MrBeast is actually already television, and a lot of people see and consider him as television. They'll, they'll tune in to his content as if they would an episode of Yellowstone. 25:02 And so I think that if this fails, uh, it, it would be very odd, very weird, and may not necessarily be Jimmy's fault. And the thing that I [laughs] find that's interesting, it's almost hypocritical, 25:16 there's a lot of traditional creators, and you were talking about Kevin Hart, but you know, there's a lot of really major A-list stars that have good movies and they have bad movies, and if they have a bad movie, we don't go, "Oh, actors are suck." 25:31 You know? It's, it's the creative, it's, it's the distribution, it's, it's the economy, it's the consumer, right? Like we were talking about earlier with, with Sundance- Yeah... and indie content. You know? 25:42 But, but why do we choose to blame the things that we choose to blame for things not working out? 25:49 Do you think that what this forecasts is that we're now in a world with people with self-distribution now more than ever that have actual financial backing from brands or how they're, they're building their own mom and pop shop businesses. 26:05 I'm, I'm literally, I, I co-founded one with Josh Richards, if you're not familiar, one of the largest TikTok talent in the world. 26:13 But really what that, that forecasts is that more and more of these individuals that have creative pursuits, whether it be an unscripted or scripted, are going to self-finance their own projects. 26:23 And so instead of vying for a Sundance or a festival to try to find your own distribution, they'll self-finance and go... 26:32 That, that, I think that that will be the new independent pathway is finding, uh, talent that are going to be their own financiers taking the risk because they have the finance to do it because they've already been creative in their own distribution in AdSense on YouTube or TikTok or Instagram, et cetera. 26:52 Twitter. You know, I hear you can make quite a penny. Thank you, MrBeast, for showing us that. 26:58 And then going and owning the IP and seeing if you can do that with an Amazon or a Netflix or whoever will be the streaming platforms of the future. 27:07 We, for our listeners, please check out Read The Room, produced by Crosscheck Studios. Came out just yesterday, will be released, every sketch will be released on TikTok every day on Josh Richards' socials. 27:21 And we self-financed it and we want that to live on social. That's solely a sketch comedy show to live on social for our audience. 27:31 We'll take on the, on the pursuits of monetization, whether it be branded or, uh, presenting sponsors, merchandise, et cetera, because we have full creative control now. 27:41 Chris, I wonder if you've essentially given potentially Sundance something to think about. You know, bringing this full circle. You know, the reality is it's a who- whole new world. 27:55 I would say the underarching theme of what we've talked about today is that we're moving into a whole new version of the modern culture, and it's happening whether we like it or not. [graphic blips] Hold on. Boye, what, 28:12 what time is it? Really, come on. Okay. What time is it? Okay. Just, just do it for me. [laughs] What, what time is it? It's hot take time. Hot take time. [air horn] Bow, bow, bow, bow. [laughs] What do you got? Okay. 28:26 So essentially this is my hot take. We were talking about MrBeast, and you, you did sort of allude to where I'm going here, but I wanna provide some definitive metrics to this. 28:39 But we've seen that history is cyclical, so when Netflix and whoever else is doing deals with the Ryan Murphys and the Shonda Rhimes of the world for nine figures, everyone else in the Hollywood industry follows suit. 28:53 And we saw the same thing in podcasts with Joe Rogan and Spotify. 28:58 And so I feel that even before MrBeast would complete his show and premiere his show, we're going to see two to three more nine-figure deals in this space where they're gonna go, "Oh yeah, this makes sense. 29:17 We're gonna shell out the cash and we're gonna, you know, create, uh, a, a TV, a film," something traditional off the backs of a major creator, and it's gonna be in the nine-figure range. All right. 29:29 My hot take, uh, as we, as we're coming up to it, I'll keep it light and fresh and fun. In honor of the big game as, as some people say, given copyright law- Yeah... and the NFL and all that, 29:44 I am gonna go off of the fun prediction to say that the Detroit Lions and the Baltimore Ravens are gonna make it to the Super Bowl. 29:57 And I, I think that perhaps I'm really just saying it 'cause that's just who I, from a story perspective, would love to see in it. Just feel good about it. I really just wanna see the Detroit Lions win. 30:09 I'm actually happy with any of the, the final four teams except for the Chiefs winning. I could be down for any of them. Yeah. I, I agree with that. Yeah. I agree with that. Like Ra- like Ravens have a good story. 30:22 Niners have a good story. Here's what I will say, though. The only reason I would maybe want the Chiefs to win is so that my hot take will come true and Travis can propose to Taylor Swift on the field after they win. 30:37 That's good. Yeah. Oh, that's disgusting. [laughs] If that actually came to light, that would be such a Hollywood ending. Oh my goodness. That would be hilarious. Yeah. Ah. It'd be like The Bachelor, right? 30:50 Like, you can't even, you can't even, like, script that. It's just- [laughs] No. Uh, you could script that. You very much could script that. They would... I mean, it's Taylor Swift. She absolutely would script that. 31:02 Yeah. Anyways, all right. Fun ep, uh, coming to you from Sundance. I'm actually in Sundance. Chris has just got Sundance clothes on. Check out Future Forecast wherever you get podcasts. 31:12 Like and subscribe, rate and review. Catch us next week. The Future Forecast is produced by Wheelhouse DNA for Acast. 31:22 Our executive producers are me, Boye Kolade, along with Fanny Baudry, Cassie Berman, and Leah Sutherland. Our audio producer is Kiara Anoni. Our audio engineer is Matthew Blocka. Our editor is Nick Kursumi. 31:36 The podcast is hosted by yours truly, Boye Kolade, and Chris Sawtelle. Thanks for listening and see you next time. Business is booming. Is your fulfillment ready for peak season? 31:50 Switch to ShipStation now and handle more volume with confidence when it counts. ShipStation connects Shopify, Amazon, TikTok Shop, and over 200 more integrations with one platform that does it all. 32:00 You can manage orders, sync inventory, track returns, all automatically. Everything your operation needs, all in one place. 32:07 Right now, qualified shippers get a real dedicated person to get you set up and switched over for free, so when peak season hits, you're ready to go. Switch today at shipstation.com, code AUDIO. 32:20 This show is brought to you by The Future Party and Crossix Studios. Produced by Chris Sawtelle, Boye Kolade, and Paul York. 32:27 Special shout-out to our production team, Araceli Rubalcava, Max Goolen, Shannon Klein, and Eli Tafur.
